Should the Healthcare Sector Adopt Black-Box AI?

James Cain on 23 October 2024

AI is arguably the most talked about topic of recent times and I am sure that everybody who has read about, or thought about AI, has their own intuition on how it could change the world. This article seeks to stimulate thought and discussion on two opposing perspectives on the adoption of AI. To frame this discussion, I will first introduce a neural network (a computer which can learn and make decisions like the human brain) that is able to detect breast cancer before doctors; it is called Mirai.

Regina Barzilay, Professor of Computer Science at MIT, was driven to develop a computer like Mirai, after developing breast cancer despite undergoing regular mammograms (breast X-Rays) from her doctor and repeatedly getting the all-clear.

Barzilay and her team trained the computer by feeding it millions of mammograms from women who had been deemed cancer free by a doctor and subsequently been diagnosed with breast cancer. Mirai established patterns in the mammograms, identifying features which the human eye cannot see or are over-looked by doctors. Mirai’s predictions were compared with those of doctors, considering all the relevant risk factors, and it was found that Mirai’s predictions were nearly twice more accurate than doctors. Essentially, Mirai can see where cancer will develop or see cancer at its earliest stages.

Mirai is a black-box AI. This means that humans can be certain on what Mirai produces, but not certain on how Mirai produces this output. Black-box AI is built up of several layers with varying functions, the layers identify different features of an image, however the links between these layers are non-linear, meaning it is not clear how the layers interact. Ultimately, the complexity of these systems means that their methods of producing results are unknown, even to the developers. 

Although, Mirai could be used to diagnose millions of women across the world with breast cancer at an earlier stage, the AI has not been adopted by the healthcare sector in the way you might expect. One Oncologist said, “The first rule of medicine is to do no harm.” Healthcare professionals feel uneasy about using a practice which they are completely unable to understand. Whereas Barzilay asserts that because Mirai has been proven to be more effective than the current process, the black-box argument should not be part of the discussion.

Where the results are proven, is it reasonable to require an explanation as to a black-box AI’s method?

Imagine a world where humans and goldfish could communicate with one another. The goldfish asks his owner: “Please explain to me why you pour those pellets into my tank every day?” To answer this question, the owner must explain why they keep the goldfish and sustain it’s life, what the pellets are, what role the pellets play in keeping the goldfish alive and why the pellets must be poured into the tank. To explain the first proposition alone, the owner would have to explain the great extent of human development that makes it feasible for humans to keep goldfish in their homes, and what satisfaction they receive from doing so. One would argue that there is no possible way of explaining these matters to an animal whose brain is less than 1.5cm long. In considering that the goldfish is dependent on its owner’s benefaction to stay alive, does the pesky goldfish deserve this laborious explanation, which is surely incomprehensible to the goldfish, or should the fish keep swimming and eat its pellets?

Image Credit: Pexels – Mart Production

This analogy provides a whimsical illustration of the argument in favour of adopting Mirai in hospitals. It serves to demonstrate that regardless of whether humans can understand how Mirai works, the results are proven. These results would have a significantly positive impact to ensure that women with breast cancer receive earlier, less invasive treatment and potentially have their lives saved. These results could benefit millions of women and their families across the world, regardless of Mirai’s hidden methodology.  

Consider an alternative scenario, of future Britain. A new political party emerges who promises that they can bring ultimate prosperity and happiness to the country. However, because of the hypothetical politicians’ superior intelligence, they announce that their government will completely lack transparency and accountability to the citizens. This is because the citizens could not comprehend the highly complex governmental inner workings. There are many people who would say, “Yes, I would vote for this party, because of their proven results.” Yet, how could you be sure that these results will always be achieved, will their governmental methods produce the same results when the country suffers a drought, or invasion? Possibly, but there is nothing to support any conclusion. Even if you could trust this government based on their past results, their lack of transparency and accountability means you could never be certain on whether this government will get things right.   

The preceding analogy highlights some of the potential risks with adopting and relying on black-box AI. There is a huge danger that one false output from Mirai could cause a person to not receive cancer treatment where they need it, or alternatively are caused to suffer through invasive treatment that they do not need. An exhaustive list of the potential dangers is impossible because of one’s lack of understanding on how Mirai works. The benefits which AI like Mirai could have, are potentially immeasurable, yet so are the drawbacks. The possibility that humans will one day understand the methods of black-box AI is not precluded. So surely, the day humans can fully comprehend black-box AI is the day that we can be more comfortable with its adoption.

What do you think?

Game-Changing Innovations: The Latest in Sustainable Technologies, Renewable Energy, and the Battle Against Climate Change (June–October 2024)

Longoae Domingos Tembwa on 21 October 2024

Over the past few months, significant advancements in sustainable technologies have emerged, as industries and governments intensify their efforts to combat climate change. Innovations in renewable energy generation, storage, carbon capture, and the circular economy are moving at a rapid pace, signalling hope in the fight against global warming. Let’s explore some of the most notable developments from June to October 2024, and their potential to reshape global responses to the climate emergency…

Solar Energy: Greater Efficiency and New Solutions

Solar energy continues to lead the renewable energy charge with groundbreaking innovations. In September, European researchers announced a new world record for solar efficiency: 33.7% in tandem perovskite-silicon solar cells. This leap integrates perovskite layers with silicon to capture more sunlight, resulting in higher energy output. These advanced cells could significantly lower solar energy costs, accelerating the transition to renewable power sources globally.

Moreover, solar energy storage is evolving rapidly. In Spain, a project utilising molten salts for thermal energy storage is in development. These salts can store excess solar energy produced during daylight hours, before releasing it at night. Such technology promises to overcome one of the major challenges facing solar power—its reliance on sunlight—and could make solar a 24/7 energy source, enhancing its reliability for large-scale deployment.

Gemasolar Power Plant, Spain, which uses molten salts for thermal energy storage.
Image Credit: Stocksy

Wind Energy: Offshore Expansion and Innovative Designs

As for wind energy, the sector is making significant strides, particularly in offshore projects. In July, Norway inaugurated the world’s largest floating wind farm, which generates 2 gigawatts of power, enough to supply over 1 million homes. Floating wind turbines are a significant development since they can be deployed in deeper waters where winds are stronger and more consistent. This advancement opens new possibilities for wind energy in countries with deep coastal waters, such as Japan and the United States, which are currently limited by conventional offshore wind technology.

Onshore wind technology is also evolving. Spain is testing a bladeless wind turbine design that uses oscillating rods to generate electricity. This turbine operates without the visual and noise pollution associated with traditional turbines, potentially expanding wind energy in urban or densely populated areas where conventional turbines face resistance.

Wind turbines in Spain trialling bladeless designs.
Image Credit: Energy Magazine

Battery Technology: Pioneering Long-Term Energy Storage

Energy storage remains a key challenge for renewable energy, but several promising breakthroughs have emerged. For instance, Iron-air batteries, showcased in August 2024 by U.S. company Form Energy, are generating excitement due to their ability to store energy for days rather than hours. This breakthrough makes iron-air batteries a game-changer for renewable energy systems, enabling more stable energy grids even during periods of low sunlight or wind.

Form Energy’s iron-air batteries.
The basic principle of operation is reversible rusting.
While discharging, the battery breathes in oxygen from the air and converts iron metal to rust.
While charging, the application of an electrical current converts the rust back to iron and the battery breathes out oxygen.
Image Credit: Form Energy

At the same time, solid-state batteries are nearing commercial viability, particularly for electric vehicles. In September, Toyota revealed its prototype solid-state battery, which offers faster charging, longer range, and improved safety compared to lithium-ion batteries. This technology is expected to be integrated into Toyota’s next-generation EVs by 2025 and could significantly boost the adoption of EVs, which are crucial for reducing emissions in the transport sector.

Green Hydrogen: A Clean Energy Frontier

Green hydrogen is rapidly gaining momentum as a clean fuel for industries that are difficult to electrify, such as shipping, aviation, and heavy manufacturing. In July, the European Union launched the Hydrogen Valley initiative, which aims to establish over 100 hydrogen hubs by 2030. These hubs will become centres for hydrogen production, storage, and distribution, thus accelerating the adoption of hydrogen as a sustainable energy source across Europe.

In Australia, the construction of the world’s largest green hydrogen production facility began in August. Set in Western Australia, the facility aims to produce 10 gigawatts of hydrogen annually by 2030, providing clean energy for both domestic use and export. The rise of green hydrogen projects similar to this is expected to drive down costs, providing a viable alternative to fossil fuels.

Circular Economy and Sustainable Materials: Reducing Waste

Advancements in the circular economy are driving significant progress in reducing waste and improving resource efficiency. In September, a consortium of leading electronics manufacturers launched the “Right to Repair” initiative, which aims to extend the life of consumer electronics and reduce electronic waste. This initiative is particularly important for addressing the environmental impact of e-waste, which contributes millions of tons of global waste each year.

At the same time, sustainable materials are seeing a push forward. In August, a new biodegradable plastic alternative made from seaweed and shrimp shells was introduced to the market. This material, which decomposes in a few weeks, could be a major step toward addressing the global plastic pollution crisis. If widely adopted, it could significantly reduce the amount of single-use plastic waste in oceans and landfills.

A new biodegradable plastic alternative using shrimp shells.
Image Credit: HuffPost UK

Conclusion: Progress with Challenges Ahead

The recent months have witnessed significant advancements in sustainable technologies, from improved solar and wind systems to breakthroughs in battery storage and green hydrogen. These developments provide hope for tackling climate change, but scaling these technologies and ensuring global adoption will be critical. Investment, policy alignment, and international cooperation will be key in determining their long-term impact on global emissions.

As the world continues to innovate and push the boundaries of renewable energy and sustainability, recent breakthroughs suggest that the path to a low-carbon future is increasingly within reach. The next decade will be crucial in determining how these innovations can help mitigate the worst impacts of climate change and transform global energy systems for good.