The World’s Forgotten Wars – Syria
‘Your Turn Doctor, Freedom’
The war in Syria used to dominate our headlines. When the Islamic State swept across Iraq and Syria it was an issue of international concern. The chaos and terror that spread from it was felt not just in the Middle East, but across the world. Today, however, the conflict has largely disappeared from the news cycle despite its continuation after the defeat of ISIS.
Syria’s descent into collapse began back in 2011. For the last four years, the country had been suffering from a sustained drought that destroyed the farms and opportunities of around 1 million farmers. Rural communities were plunged into poverty and many decided to move to urban areas in search of new jobs.
In the cities the migrants found few jobs, scarce food and little support from the government made worse by the country’s growing refugee population from across the region due to its relative stability compared with its neighbours. Desperate for help from the state, farmers began to protest against the government in the southern city of Daraa in March 2011.
These complaints were met with little sympathy from the government which feared a repeat of the Hama massacre where the Muslim Brotherhood took control of the city of Hama and the government brutally cracked down. Wishing to avoid repeating the situation, the government cracked down quickly on the protests to prevent them gaining a foothold.
However, protests continued and became part of the Arab Spring movement. The increasing crackdowns led to more protests, spreading to other parts of the country and issues shifted from local economic concerns to wider concerns of the national economy and freedom.
The situation continued to deteriorate and become increasingly dangerous for the government, however, soon the government would pass the point of no return. In May 2011 Syrian security forces detained 15 boys for the creation of graffiti on their school which read ‘It’s your turn, doctor, Freedom’. Human Rights Watch reported that the 15 children who were arrested by the police were released with clear signs of torture. This fueled growing anger among the people who rejected government claims that they would investigate the acts of brutality.
Within a month the situation had completely collapsed and elements of the military began to desert the government; with growing violence from the state, these soldiers formed the Free Syrian Army, the first armed resistance to the government. Since the original uprising, the war in Syria has seen multiple phases. The conflict entered Europe’s news when ISIS captured large swathes of the country (and Iraq) in 2014 and the conflict became internationalised. Today the situation has begun to stabilise with the defeat of ISIS.
Most of the country, outside the north, has since been recaptured, or held, by the Assad government including many major cities including Aleppo, Daraa (the home of the civil war) and the capital Damascus. The government has achieved this with aid from the Russian and Iranian governments which have enabled the regime to flatten cities and develop chemical weapons. Shi’a groups from Iraq and Hezbollah from Lebanon have also played an important role in providing armed forces.
Meanwhile, rebel forces maintain footholds on the Turkish border and in the northeast of the country. In areas on the border with Turkey, the Free Syrian Army and allied Jihadist groups, (with the support of Turkey) have clung on to a few cities (the most significant being Iblib). In 2019 the Turkish government expanded its involvement in the conflict and invaded parts of Northeastern Syria (held by Kurdish groups) in order to establish what President Erdogan called a ‘safe zone’ (according to Politico).
The largest rebel-held territory is the northeast, and Kurdish majority areas, of the country which is nearly completely held by the US/NATO (excluding Turkey) backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). According to The Atlantic, originally supported by the US government as the best, pro-democracy resistance to ISIS, they have managed to maintain some Western support. The SDF is a coalition of pro-democracy Syrians and Kurdish nationalists who are fighting for a democratic and decentralised Syrian state.
The situation on the ground has not changed substantially in the last year with the situation grinding into a three-way stalemate with all sides having sufficient morale and/or equipment from major and regional powers to be unable to dislodge each other.
Outside the ground operations, however, the war has moved firmly in favour of the Assad government which has succeeded in regaining legitimacy in the international community. In May 2023 Assad was reinvited to the Arab League for the first time since the crackdown of protests in 2011. The decision is widely seen as being driven by Jordanian, Saudia Arabian and UAE concerns over the drug trade spreading out of Syria, particularly the supply of Captagon from the country.
Captagon has been reported to have many links to the regime and the BBC has been reporting with the Jordanian and Lebanese militaries in their operations to stop the flow of the drug over the border. Diplomats in the Arab world will hope that if they can help rebuild a functioning Syrian state they may be able to work with the regime in halting the flow of Captagon.
Sanctions against the Syrian regime have been increased following its entrance into the drug market with European countries and the USA maintaining a strict policy. In France, there have been further steps with an arrest warrant being approved for Assad himself (and a few family members) on the charge of war crimes.
For the next few years, likely until a deal is achieved between the government and rebels, the regime will exist in a state of diplomatic limbo with some nations willing to work with it. Like everything, the Syrian civil war may be heavily impacted by the recent election of Trump. In 2019 he decided to reduce the US presence of troops in SDF territory that led to the Turkish invasion and this could be repeated. Robert F Kennedy jr told Tucker Carlson that Trump wanted American troops out of the region especially if there was an increased chance they would come under attack. However, once the Syrian and Turkish governments know this, then the US troops cease to be a deterrent and the most effective Syrian force for democracy is put in increased danger.
Despite the minimal coverage of the conflict, the civil war is not over. If we continue to ignore the situation then it is likely that slowly the Syrian government will strengthen itself and be able to reunite the country. The impact this could have on everyone in the county that is opposed to the government should worry us.
Words by Archie Sykes
