A Breath of Relief for the Scientific Community after Lula Win in Brazilian Elections

The triumph of former president Lula over controversial current president Jair Bolsonaro was welcomed by scientists, especially conservationists and environmentalists, who anticipate the return of important environmental policies removed over the past four years and see the win as good news for the future of the Amazon.

Following a tense first round at the beginning of October 2022, in which neither candidate received more than half of the public vote, a second round, held on the October 30^th, saw Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva win by what has been called the slightest margin since Brazil’s return to democracy in 1989. In receiving 50.9% of the public vote against Bolsonaro’s 49.10%, Lula has secured his second presidency.

The 77-year-old former factory-worker, born in the state of Sao Paulo, became Brazil’s first working-class president in his first presidential run, from 2003 to 2010. However, following corruption claims amid the Petrobras scandal resulting in a 19-month stint in prison, he was side-lined from the 2018 election which saw Jair Bolsonaro elected president. Lula’s 2022 win is the first time since 1985 that the sitting Brazilian president has failed to win a re-election.

Lula’s re-election has been welcomed by the scientific community in Brazil, which suffered massively under Bolsonaro’s right-wing presidency. The past four years have seen major cuts to the education budget, and a serious lack of research grants, leaving many universities and education schemes with poor funding, failing equipment, and a subsequent decrease in the number of academics remaining in Brazil.

Elisa Orth, a chemist at the Federal University of Parana, Curitiba, said of Lula’s win; “Today is a very hopeful day here in Brazil. We have voted for somebody who believes in science, believes in education”. Luiz Davidovich called Lula’s win “a huge relief”. Dadovich, the former president of the Brazilian Academy of scientists, and current physicist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro also pointed out that Lula was the only presidential candidate to mention science during his campaign.

The hope that this new president will restore important legislations and vigour for education, is rooted in the example set from Lula’s first and second term in office. During his first presidency, Lula showed his commitment to the scientific community, and environmental causes. His Workers’ Party (PT) invested heavily in science, innovation, and education, whereas under Bolsonaro, numerous environmental protections for the Amazon were removed, leading to mass deforestation, increased wildfires, and causing a doubling of CO2 emissions in 2019-2020. Bolsonaro also promoted the spread of misinformation about COVID-19 and the vaccine, specifically that receiving the jab would cause women to grow beards and people to turn into crocodiles.  

Lula’s win is also being celebrated by scientists outside of Brazil. Aline Soterroni, an environmental scientist at the University of Oxford said, “Lula’s record on tackling deforestation gives reason for hope”, whilst Steve Trent, co-founder of the Environmental Justice Foundation said Lula’s re-election “means people and nature have a chance to recover after the wanton destruction of the Bolsonaro years”. The Norwegian government, previously one of the most significant donors to funds for the protection of the Amazon, are reported to release around $480 million in aid – payments which had been frozen under Bolsonaro’s government for fear the money would be pocketed or channelled elsewhere. Furthermore, an analysis carried out by Carbon Brief estimates that Lula’s win could lead to deforestation being cut by as much as 89% over the next decade.

It is important to note, however, that there is still little to no detailed information on Lula’s environmental policies, his plans for boosting the Brazilian economy, or for boosting energy demands. Environmentalists worry that Lula may not be sufficiently equipped to tackle the Brazil he has taken on. Ahead of his inauguration on the 1^st of January 2023, Lula faces a faltering economy and a pre-approved 2023 budget which includes further cuts to research and the education sector.

Aside from this, despite losing the presidential campaign, Bolsonaro’s party still hold the largest number of seats in Brazilian congress, so any decisions Lula makes will undoubtedly be heavily opposed. 

It seems, therefore, that despite the optimism that this new presidency inspires in both the general public and the scientific community, four years of Lula may not be enough to repair the damage caused by the Bolsonaro administration.