The rise of the AFD: The German elections and the possibilities to counter the far-right

Germany’s recent election highlights a number of worrying trends in European politics. But is it all doom & gloom?

When looking at the election results from Germany’s February Bundestag elections, you’d be forgiven for thinking you were staring at a map from a history book. Almost 40 years after Ronald Reagan told Soviet Premier Mikhail Gorbachev to ‘tear down this wall’, the divide between East and West remains painfully clear.

Despite Friedrich Merz’s CDU victory, and the social democrat SPD’s worst result since their inception, the story that dominated headlines on the morning of the 24 th of February was the rise of the far-right AfD. The Alternative für Deutschland, established in 2013, have steadily increased their vote share. In the new Bundestag, the German parliament, they will represent the largest opposition party with 152 seats, having secured 20.8% of the national
vote (Tagesschau, 2025).

On the opposite end of the political spectrum, the other big winners of election night were Die Linke, or ‘the left’. Popular with young people, especially young women, the party exceeded expectations with 9% of the vote. This in spite of the formation of the BSW, or Bündnis Sara Wagenknecht, a populist far-left party founded by Die Linke’s former core member, Sara Wagenknecht. The BSW failed to enter the Bundestag, missing the required 5% vote share by 0.03%.

Germany, like many other established democracies, is in the midst of a period of polarisation. People in Western countries are increasingly voicing their frustrations with inflated costs of living and societal inequality by turning to the extremes of politics. In France, the far-right Rassemblement National was narrowly defeated by a joint effort of the centre and the left in 2024; in Spain, the far-right Vox is gradually rising in the polls (Heller, 2025); in the UK, the Reform party finished third in the last general election. Most notably, the American people voted in Donald J Trump for a second term. People are no longer satisfied with the status quo. People want change.

In Germany, this swing to the extremes of politics is exacerbated by a Phantomgrenze, a ‘ghost border’ (Mau, 2024). Although the physical border between East and West has long been dismantled, an invisible line still divides the country. Residents of the former German Democratic Republic (GDR) face lower income levels, lower purchasing power, and higher levels of unemployment. This, alongside persistent societal differences, has led to the re-emergence of an East German identity, an identity now manifesting itself as a vote for the AfD.

What now for the parties of the centre? All three parties in the last governing coalition, the centre-left SPD, the Greens, and the liberal FDP saw their vote share fall. The centre-right ‘Union’ parties of Merz’s CDU and their Bavarian sister party, CSU, won the election with their second lowest vote share in history. The next government, likely a coalition of Union and SPD, will face a hostile Bundestag, dominated by an antagonistic AfD determined to disrupt, and a public that is increasingly polarised.

Most alarming is the polarisation of the youth. Once seen as a homogenic bloc of progressives, the youth in Germany, and the Western world in general, is increasingly divided between far-left and far-right. Political engagement is not an issue in Germany; 82.5% turned out for the elections, compared to 59.7% in the 2024 UK General Election. The issue is where this engagement is taking place: social media.

The AfD, as with other far right parties, have an exceptional social media presence. Not only on TikTok, where Die Linke’s campaign helped them gain 9% of the vote, but also on X, formerly twitter, where the AfD’s anti-Migrant, Islamophobic, extremist rhetoric is echoed and reposted by owner Elon Musk. Social media has become an inevitable arena of political contestation, an arena where the moderate parties must increase their presence.

Aside from a focus on social media, the future government has the ability to make the AfD irrelevant. According to Friedrich Merz, this is achievable by fixing the issues of immigration, security, and the economy, issues he sees as driving the AfD vote. Rather than going head-to-head with the AfD on immigration, Merz needs to lean into the aspects of his political personality that have made him electable. We’ve seen in the UK how challenging far-right parties using their own rhetoric rarely results in a win for centrist parties, with the Conservative’s rightward slide ending in humiliation at the last General Election. To quote George Bernard Shaw “never wrestle with a pig; you’ll both get dirty, and the pig likes it”.

Merz has the air of a leader. Strong in his opinions against Russian aggression in Ukraine, strong in his support for European integration, and strongly in favour of a hawkish fiscal policy. Strong political leadership is in high demand. His political style of presenting strength, coupled with a coalition partner in the SPD who can temper his immigration rhetoric, promote socially progressive policies, and who share the same priorities in increasing defence spending, presents a rosier picture for the next four years of German politics.

Furthermore, although the AfD is no longer a ‘fringe party’, its political activities are kept at bay by the Brandmauer, or ‘firewall’ that exists in German politics. This phrase describes thepolicy of every major party never to collaborate with a far-right party. If there is one thing the Germans learned from their history, it is never to forget. With the AfD classified as an extremist organisation by the German domestic intelligence agency, the idea of them entering government seems implausible.

There is hope, then. The AfD’s rise to relevance must not be ignored, but rather than focusing on issues of immigration and the xenophobia exhibited by many of the AfD’s leading politicians, it is up to the ‘Grand Coalition’ of CDU/CSU and SPD to address the foundational issues behind AfD votership. Namely, the persistent economic and social inequality between East and West, and more broadly the economic inequalities and hardship brought about by globalisation. In light of the mess that is the contemporary international political system, national unity is a must, and that means a politics that speaks to, and tackles the problems of those most disenfranchised in society.

Words by Henry Weiser