Trump’s pre-inauguration international threats: a record and analysis

President-elect Donald Trump took office for his second term on January 20. Since his victory, his rhetoric has been characterised by performative, braggadocio imperialism, disturbingly evocative of the 19th century ‘Manifest Destiny’ ideology. Most of these expansionist desires are rooted in false claims, of which the Washington Post totals 30,573 in his first term alone. Despite the likely performative nature of many of these threats, they pose a challenge to the international order and the role of the US in international politics, plunging the world into a state of uncertainty and unpredictability. 

Panama

Beginning on December 21, President-elect Trump has frequently asserted his suggestion that the US should retake control of the Panama Canal. On December 22, he posted an image from the perspective of a US flagged vessel, the caption reading “Welcome to the United States Canal!” The territory surrounding the canal has previously belonged to Colombia, France, and the US. Contention over US control of the Canal and the area surrounding it grew after World War Two culminating in the Martyrs’ Day Riots on January 9 1964, during which US security forces killed 20 demonstrators, most having been students.

Hundreds of Panamanians marched on January 9 2024 in remembrance, some protesters burning an effigy of Trump, and chanting “spilled blood will never be forgotten” and “hands off Panama.”The 1974 Torrijos-Carter Treaties granted Panamanians control of the canal, as long as they maintained its neutrality.  It was formally transferred to Panama on December 31, 1999.

Trump has a personal history regarding Panama, having sold his name to Panama City’s Trump Ocean Club International Hotel and Tower, which became marred by controversies relating to drug money laundering and tax evasion. Although the company distanced itself from Trump, Brazilian real estate salesman Alexandre Ventura Nogueira, who worked to sell the building’s condos, stated that the Trump family, especially Ivanka, was involved in the details of the Trump Ocean Club. Having sold hundreds of units in the building, Nogueira was arrested in 2009 for real estate fraud in an unrelated project.

Trump has numerous reasons for this demand. Firstly, he falsely claimed that the Panamanian government breached the Torrijos-Carter Treaties by excessively charging US ships.  On December 25, Trump wished a merry Christmas to all, “including to the wonderful soldiers of China, who are lovingly, but illegally, operating the Panama Canal.”  In 2017, Panama severed ties with Taiwan in favour of China, and a Chinese company owns two of the five ports adjacent to the canal. However, China has no control over the canal. He has also cited the estimated 5,600 American deaths whilst constructing the canal from 1903 to 1914. In response to these claims, President José Raúl Mulino stated “Every square meter of the Panama Canal and its adjacent zones is part of Panama, and it will continue to be.” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated “China will, as always, respect Panama’s sovereignty over the canal and recognize it as a permanently neutral international waterway.” When asked on January 7, Trump refused to rule out economic and military action against Panama.

Greenland

Trump first asserted his desire to annex the Danish territory of Greenland in 2017. On December 22, Trump wrote on Truth Social “For purposes of National Security and Freedom throughout the World, the United States of America feels that the ownership and control of Greenland is an absolute necessity.” American proposals for the purchase of Greenland began in the 19th century. Control of the GIUK Gap (Greenland, Iceland, UK) has often been seen as vital to American maritime safety, especially during the Cold War, due to fears of Soviet ballistic missile submarines sailing within range of Washington DC and New York. The Trump Administration has also accused Denmark of inadequacy regarding Greenlandic air defences.

In February 2024, the Greenlandic government declared that independence was its goal. One key reason the US fears this is the Pituffik Space Base. Arctic ground stations are necessary for polar-orbiting satellites such as those in communications and imagery, on which many military operations depend. Pituffik Space Base is one of only two available to the US. Greenland is also abundant in natural resources, such as crude oil and natural gas. Upon seeing Greenland on a map, Trump once reportedly stated “Look at the size of this. It’s massive. That should be part of the United States.” 

Trump has asserted his idolisation of President William McKinley, who was responsible for the extension of US control over Alaska, Hawaii, Guam, and the Philippines, and Trump evidently shares his imperialist desires.  Trump’s demands are especially blind with regards to the Greenlandic people, to whom the very concept of land ownership is repugnant. In addition, Denmark is a US ally through NATO.

A recent poll shows that 59% of Greenlanders support greater cooperation with the US, a decrease from 69% in 2021. Prime Minister Mute Egede wrote “Greenland is ours. We are not for sale and will never be for sale.”  Former finance minister Maliina Abelsen stated “I believe it’s both useful and interesting for Greenland to establish strong connections with many countries including the USA. However, this does not mean I suggest we should be part of the USA at all.”

Canada

In November, Trump vowed to heighten tariffs on goods imported from Canada, China, and Mexico on his first day in office, the US’s biggest trading partners. Having repeatedly mused about the idea of annexing Canada as the 51st state, “Because Canada and the US, that would really be something,” Trump threatened ‘economic force’ against their NATO ally. The notion of American annexation of Canada has been largely untouched since the War of 1812, which saw an unsuccessful US invasion of Canada, approximately 15,000 American deaths, and an agreement to return to the status quo. A recent poll found that 10% of Canadians supported the proposed union. Trudeau stresses that Canadians “are incredibly proud of being Canadian. One of the ways we define ourselves most easily is, well, we’re not American. There’s such a depth of pride that that’s not really an issue.”

Mexico

In addition to the threat of increased tariffs, Trump continues his imperialist rhetoric through the proposition of unilateral cartographic alteration. On January 7, Trump announced his intention of renaming the Gulf of Mexico to the “Gulf of America.” The Gulf was named in 1607, and is an area of economic importance, such as shipping, fishing, and electricity generation. Trump falsely claimed that the US “does most of the work” on the gulf, and demanded the rechristening “because it’s ours.”

Trump has historically antagonised Mexico, fiercely and overzealously stitching the narrative of Mexicans as being responsible for importing illegal drugs and immigrating illegally, infamously labelling Mexicans as “rapists” and “criminals” in 2016.  Indeed, xenophobia and racism characterised his 2024 campaign as they did in 2016, including the entirely false claim that Haitian residents of Springfield, Ohio were eating pets there, and the equally untrue claim that the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua was “taking over the towns. They’re taking over buildings. They’re going in violently.” On January 8, President Claudia Sheinbaum stood before a 17th-Century map labelling North America as “América Mexicana”, sardonically suggesting the name be changed; “That sounds nice, no?”

Iran

Upon information of two assassination attempts, which Tehran denied, Trump stated on September 25 that Iran should be blown “to smithereens” if they were to carry out such an attack. On December 13, Trump suggested the use of airstrikes to prevent the development of an Iranian nuclear weapon.

Ukraine

While Trump has not explicitly threatened Ukraine, he has frequently expressed the desire to reduce aid.  He has also vowed to end the war within a day of his inauguration, or even before, and has implied a more lenient approach to peace talks, his incoming national security advisor Mike Walz labelling it unrealistic for Ukraine to regain lost territory.  Ultimately, Trump views the war as a European issue; “We have a little thing called an ocean in between us.”

Many dismiss Trump’s threats as simple boasts. However, breaking the standard integrity regarding international borders is a dangerous psychological move that may bolster other leaders to aggrandise their territories by force. The engenderment of uncertainty and trepidation is especially evident as Canada and Denmark are members of NATO, and such tension can create long-term diplomatic detriment. Ultimately, Trump promised his voters a ‘Golden Age’, and uses such bombastic language for self aggrandisement. 

200 health professionals have argued that Trump has ‘malignant narcissism’ in an open letter, citing a lifetime pattern of “failure to conform to social norms and laws, repeated lying, reckless disregard for the safety of others, irritability, impulsivity, irresponsibility and lack of remorse”. 

Embodying arbitrage, these pursuits are unlikely to be achieved, and would be indelibly detrimental to US foreign policy. However, they are indicative of an unpredictable US foreign policy, and one likely more assertive than during Trump’s first term. 

Fostering such a sentiment of xenophobia and national superiority indicates a likely hostile foreign policy, including towards allies, during Trump’s second term, and US allies worry for what this will entail regarding international organisations.

Words by Daniel Spencer