Assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah Leaders and the future of the Israel-Palestine Conflict

Since the Six Day War of 1967, Israel has been occupying the West Bank and the Gaza Strip. 

This occupation has been characterised by ongoing illegal settlement, dispossession, and apartheid. 

The most recent conflict began on 7 October 2023, when Hamas launched a violent attack on southern Israel, citing Palestinian suffering at the hands of Israel as justification.

On October 16, 2024, an Israeli drone strike in Rafah, southern Gaza, killed Yahya Sinwar, Hamas’ leader in the Gaza Strip since 2017. 

Sinwar was identified as a key architect of the October 7 attacks, which killed approximately 1,200 Israelis.

The Prime Minister of Israel, Netanyahu, called Sinwar’s death a milestone, but announced that Israel would continue to fight in Gaza and Lebanon. Iran stated that Sinwar’s death would strengthen the “spirit of resistance”, and Hezbollah vowed to escalate fighting in Israel.

Bassem Naim, a leader in Hamas’ politburo, claimed that Hamas gains strength and popularity with the loss of each leader, who become enduring symbols for future generations. 

Hamas deputy chairman Khalil al-Hayya, in their first statement after Sinwar’s death, maintained that hostages would only be released if Israel halted its military offensive and withdrew from Gaza.

Palestinian affairs expert Ashraf Abouelhoul expects that Hamas will perpetuate its core demands- such as an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and an end to the war- it might show some flexibility in negotiations over issues like prisoner exchanges or hostages.

In short, the war has not ended as a result of Sinwar’s death, but it is transforming. Who Hamas chooses as its next leader will determine the next phase of the conflict.

The conflict has also intensified in Lebanon. On October 8, 2023, Hezbollah fired rockets into Israel’s Sheba’a Farms area, a region Lebanon claims as its own. In response, Israel launched a ground invasion of Lebanon on October 1, 2024, after a series of attacks, including the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on September 27.

The deaths of Nasrallah and several other Hezbollah leaders leave a power vacuum both within the party and in the Lebanese political landscape. 

Expert Matthew Levitt describes the evolving situation of Hezbollah: “While its leadership has been decimated and its military capabilities severely degraded, Hezbollah still maintains an arsenal of rockets and a cadre of several thousand fighters.” 

Sanam Vakil, an expert from Chatham House, warned that Iran might respond to Nasrallah’s killing by seeking ways to reassert its influence in the region.

The situations within Hamas and Hezbollah appear much alike. In both cases, although a key organisational figure is lost, they remain important figureheads for those who continue to fight, whilst simultaneously acting to muster continuing Israeli violence. 

Although both organisations are weakened by the losses, they remain powerful. Slight changes in approach in negotiations are possible, but core demands remain for all parties involved.

On October 13, the US gave Israel a 30-day deadline to begin allowing food, medicine and other supplies into Gaza, threatening an end to weapon transfers. 

Although Israel claims it has permitted aid deliveries, the United Nations reports that supplies reaching Gaza are at their lowest levels this year. Northern Gaza is particularly affected, with warnings of imminent famine and little aid entering the area.

Earlier this year, U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres outlined the scale of the crisis, highlighting the displacement of over 75% of Gaza’s population, widespread water shortages, and severe malnutrition affecting tens of thousands of children. Guterres emphasized the need for a political resolution, calling for a two-state solution based on pre-1967 borders, with Jerusalem as the capital of both Israel and Palestine.

Since the latest round of conflict began, Gaza’s health ministry has reported over 43,764 deaths and 103,490 injured. Israel, meanwhile, has recorded 1,139 deaths and more than 8,700 injuries. As the conflict continues, the human cost and regional tensions show no signs of easing.

Words By: Daniel Spencer