Why The Democrats Lost (And How They Win In 2028)
Short Answer: “It’s The Economy, Stupid!”
The USA is a country mired in misogyny and racism. But blaming these prejudices for Kamala Harris’s humiliating loss lets the Democrats off the hook.
The truth? 2024 was a year of elections that were essentially referendums on inflation and incumbents. The Conservatives in the UK, Macron’s Ensemble coalition and now, the Democrats in the US. However, the Harris (and Biden) campaign managers are not blameless, quite the opposite in fact. Donald Trump’s coalition of the working-class white men, white women, Latino men, a growing base of support among black men and young men aged 18-29, was built in part by Democrats’ losing strategy of abandoning economic populism, refusing to disassociate from Biden and other unpopular politicians, and disengaging from the independent media sphere.
Democrats not only lost votes to Trump, they ‘lost votes to the couch’ as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez laid out in an interview with MSCNBC’s Joy Reid. Kamala lost around 20 million votes that went to Biden in 2020. Michael Podhorzer, Chair of the Analyst Institute and former political director for the AFL-CIO, America’s largest union confederation, had this to say: “[Kamala] kept those who had said they were voting “for Biden” four years ago, but really tanked with people who had said they were casting their ballot “against Trump” four years ago… that’s about 20 million people.” It’s clear that the people Kamala lost were a large chunk of the progressively inclined Democratic base, sacrificed on the altar of the so-called “big tent”, centrist strategy. This happened at the same time Trump was throwing red meat to his base of support. Democrats’ faults come right up to the surface when one realises that progressive policies are also immensely popular among Trump supporters, swing voters and independents.
There is a plethora of reasons as to why Kamala lost, as discussed above, but let’s explore these problems and their solutions for 2028 in more detail.
Economic Populism
As stated, this year’s elections were a judgement on the incumbency and inflation. Ruling parties had massive losses in 2024. Why? Because people want change, they’ve wanted it for a long time, anyone that promises to deliver it in an election shadowed by economic downturn is likely to win. This, however, doesn’t explain why Trump won in 2016, or inform Democrats’ strategy for 2028
The only Democratic candidate that galvanised a coalition like Trump’s, to have high rates of support among MAGA fans, as well as Democrats’ base, and get the endorsement of Joe Rogan, is Bernie Sanders. Sanders, in both of his campaigns, advocated for universally popular policies, like paid family leave, “Medicare for All”, labour rights, and campaign finance reform to end corruption in US elections.
As wealth inequality skyrockets as it has for 30 years under Democrat and Republican presidents alike, it becomes clear that a social-democratic, populist class-first candidate is what we need to beat MAGA.
Donald Trump, with the help of Elon Musk, will grow inequality and strengthen the oligarchy whilst blaming Haitian Americans, trans people, and immigrants for all our problems, and enacting the exact opposite of the policies previously mentioned. To win, Democrats must rally around a candidate who can expose that.
The Biden Factor
To state the obvious, Kamala’s association with Biden severely hindered her electoral chances. Her choice not to break from him on any policy when given the chance was a disastrous tactic.
This points to a wider issue; the associations politicians make. Part of the failed strategy of appealing to the mythical, centre-right, suburban white woman vote (which Trump won convincingly anyway), was hanging out with Republican lawmaker, Liz Cheney, daughter of war criminal Dick Cheney, instead of Bernie Sanders, and even VP nominee Tim Walz (the most popular in the race)
The next candidate must heed this advice: Next time, hang out with the popular kids.
The ‘Manosphere’
The party establishment may not like it, but Democrats must reckon with this fundamental truth, the keys to the White House lie in Joe Rogan’s studio.
The decision by Kamala’s team to not go to Austin and record a podcast with Joe Rogan was a big mistake, and sent a signal to young, working-class men that Kamala simply didn’t care about them.
Podcasters like Andrew Schulz, Theo Von, and of course Rogan, are the new 60 Minutes. Going on these shows, showing what you stand for, coming across as authentic, is an electoral masterclass. Donald Trump knew that.
Where do we go from here?
Contrary to the many pundits blaming “wokeness” or Democrats being too progressive for Kamala’s loss, the real reason Kamala lost is because Donald Trump was seen as a change agent, regressive change, but change, nonetheless. Kamala seemed to represent the corrupt, neoliberal political class that people have grown to hate.
For 2028, Democrats must learn the right lesson and embrace the populism of Bernie and FDR, become a working people’s party again, and effectively communicate a message that ordinary people can support, one that recognises their economic anxieties no matter their race, religion, gender, or party-affiliation.
Words by Jamie Mitchell
Cover Image Credit: Evelyn Hockstein/Pool Photo via AP
