Global Implications of Trump’s election

“Trump’s first term suggested that the only truly predictable thing about the way he behaved was its unpredictability”- Dr Martin Purvis.

On Tuesday the 6th of November the world woke up to an extraordinary political comeback in the US. Donald Trump is back.

Trump’s victory is without a doubt going to have seismic effects on the rest of the world.

Are you wondering what we can expect from his second term and what impacts the US government’s shift will have globally? 

Zara Lake recently touched base with Dr Martin Purvis, a senior lecturer in the School of Geography who specialises in Political and Historical Geography, he gave a thought-provoking insight into what we could expect from Trump’s presidency in the next few years.

Purvis explored some key topics including the War in Ukraine, NATO and Global Trade/Economy.

On global security issues, Purvis reflected on the competing democratic and authoritarian forces that some analysts see as a key source of global divisions. 

Previously, under Biden’s leadership, the US has consistently claimed to support democratic states resisting the expansion of anti-western authoritarian countries. Support for Ukraine has been justified as part of this global ideological struggle. 

However, with Trump’s influence we will see a shift in the US attitude to tackling the conflict.

Trump’s Democratic opponents argue that he is cosying up to Putin and betraying Ukraine. Ultimately, allowing Putin to get what he wants – an extension of territory and a veto on Ukraine’s NATO membership.

During Trump’s campaign, he repeatedly spoke of how wants to halt the USA’s involvement in conflicts elsewhere in the world and that he could end the war in Ukraine in “24 hours”.

Purvis notes, “Trump is much less motivated by any distinction between democratic and authoritarian states. Indeed, he seems to have personal regard for what he perceives as the strength of many authoritarian leaders”.

He goes on to say that “Trump probably could force peace in Ukraine, but in ways that Putin could exploit to claim victory.”

Dr Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher in the War Studies Department at King’s College London, agrees, writing that “a return of Trump to the White House will undeniably serve Russia’s interests.”

Trump is also sceptical about the value of NATO, arguing that the US has been exploited by European NATO members.

Recently, Trump stated, “I will not protect you”, threatening to abandon NATO allies who don’t spend  a large enough percentage of their GDP on defence.

This seems to undermine the trust in a shared commitment to collective security on which NATO is based, undermining alliances and important European and trans-Atlantic relationships that are key to global security.

However, Purvis mentions that we should be cautious about taking things at face value as, “it is not clear whether Trump necessarily means what he says, or whether he is provoking to force others to change”.

But we know one thing for sure, “He seeks what he can claim as the best deal for the USA”.

Purvis implies that we can expect Trump to stick to his mantra of America First.

On trade and tariffs, Trump has vowed that when he returns to the White House, “Inflation will vanish completely”.

However, economic analysts have said quite the opposite – including sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists who expressed fears that Trump’s proposals will “reignite’’ inflation.

Similarly, Purvis has expressed concerns that “with his threat to impose substantially increased tariffs, Trump could trigger higher prices for US consumers and higher US inflation”. The effects would not be confined to the USA; there is a risk of “Slower economic growth not just in China, also USA, Europe and elsewhere.” Not at all what Trump promises.

Yet, Purvis notes that this “is wholly consistent with Trump’s belief that he always knows best and ‘experts’ who disagree are idiots, or are engaged in a deliberate act of political sabotage directed against him and the American people”.

Overall, as Purvis says, “Trump’s first term suggested that the only truly predictable thing about the way he behaved was its unpredictability”. This translates into growing future uncertainty for the USA and the rest of the world.

But one thing is for sure, Trump is making history.

Words by: Zara Lake