Donald Trump is Returning to Office, But What Does This Mean for Ukraine?
Donald Trump has long advocated an ‘America First’ approach to foreign policy, which emphasises national interests over international protection. As he prepares for his second term in office from January 2025, the question arises: what are the real-world implications of this policy, particularly in relation to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine?
Trump’s ‘America First’ policies represent a significant shift from previous US presidents such as Biden, Obama and Bush, who followed a doctrine of ‘American Exceptionalism’. This views the role of the US, as a global superpower with the largest defence budget in the world, to be the protector of other nations and promote democratic values worldwide. This can be seen in cases such as the Iraq War and intervention into Syria to protect citizens from chemical weapon attacks.
In comparison, Trump’s ‘America First’ policies take the opposite position. Rather than viewing the US as a global protector, Trump believes America’s power should be used primarily to protect its own people and prioritise US citizens over international commitments, representing a more nationalist approach. This means a sharp reduction in US involvement abroad, including a non-intervention stance.
One of the most significant aspects of Trump’s foreign policy has been repeated threats to withdraw the US from NATO, the military alliance which provides security guarantees to much of Europe. In 2020, he ordered the withdrawal of nearly 10,000 US troops from Germany, which alarmed European allies and raised questions about the future of US protection in Europe.
These positions highlight contradictions within Trump’s foreign policy. Whilst advocating for reducing military deployments, he also called for more robust military activity in some areas. For example, during his first term, Trump authorised missile strikes in Syria, whilst announcing a complete withdrawal of US troops deployed to Syria. This suggests Trump’s foreign policy actions are unpredictable and may be contradictory.
The Potential Impact on Ukraine
Trump’s ‘America First’ policy could have large effects on US support for Ukraine. Since the Russian full-scale invasion in February 2022, the US has been Ukraine’s largest supplier of military aid, providing over $64 billion in assistance. Given Trump’s non-interventionist policies and previous statements about reducing military commitments abroad, it is likely that US support for Ukraine would decrease under his leadership, which could prove devastating for Ukraine, particularly as Russian forces make territorial gains.
Trump’s views on the war have been somewhat ambiguous, but he has made it clear that he would seek to end the conflict swiftly. During the 2024 campaign, he claimed that if re-elected, he could end the war “within 24 hours”, though the specifics of this plan remain unclear. Earlier this year, he proposed a controversial peace deal which would effectively freeze the frontlines, handing over large portions of Ukraine’s eastern territory (including Crimea) to Russia.
Whilst Trump’s potential peace deal may seem like an opportunity for a quick resolution, it was swiftly rejected by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, who has insisted Russia must completely withdraw. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stated the importance of US support for Ukraine’s survival, stating in an interview that “Ukraine, barehanded, without weapons, will not be able to fight a multi-million army”.
Moreover Trump’s choice of JD Vance, a vocal sceptic of US support for Ukraine, as his future Vice-President signals a direction in policy regarding American assistance. Vance has publicly stated he does not “really care what happens” in Ukraine.
Despite these concerns, Zelensky has congratulated Trump on his “impressive election victory” stating: “I appreciate President Trump’s commitment to the ‘peace through strength’ approach in global affairs”.
It is unclear precisely how the Trump administration’s re-election will impact the conflict. However, it appears support for Ukraine and US military allies more broadly will decrease, potentially altering the course of the war.
Words by Lucy Gardner
Cover Image Credit: Shannon Stapleton/ Reuters
