Britain Remains in Constitutional Crisis and the Conservatives are About to Exacerbate it
With the outcome of the Conservative Party Leadership Contest expected to be announced on November 2nd, the party is on course to shift further to the right. After James Cleverly was eliminated from the race on October 9th, Conservative Party members will be given a choice between the final two candidates, Kemi Badenoch and Robert Jenrick, both favoured by the right of the party. Badenoch is notable for her criticism of ‘woke’ culture and criticism of ‘malign and destructive identity politics.’ Mr Jenrick’s campaign is largely focussed on taking a hard stance on immigration which many see as far-right.
This shift to the right comes as part of a broader trend in British politics, despite dwindling public support. The results of the 2016 Brexit referendum saw those in favour of leaving the European Union and ‘taking back control’ of British sovereignty, spearheaded by Nigel Farage and the former United Kingdom Independence Party, secure 51.6% of the national vote share. After a prolonged period of political impasse with the Commons refusing to implement the Brexit Bill, August 2019 saw then Prime Minister Boris Johnson attempt to prorogue parliament in order to force through the legislation whilst parliament was in recess. The Supreme Court ruled that the prorogation was unlawful as it “has the effect of frustrating or preventing the ability of parliament to carry out its constitutional functions.”
Nevertheless, the outcome of the General Election in December 2019 was widely viewed as a resounding success for Johnson and the Brexiteers, with the Conservative Party securing 326 seats in Parliament and an 80 strong majority. This equates to just 43.6% of the national vote share and rebellions within the party resulting in the deposition of two party leaders within the space a single year. During Rishi Sunak’s administration and in an attempt to generate political stability, a peerage was bestowed upon David Cameron in order for him to represent Britain on the national stage as Foreign Secretary. Crucially, Cameron was the first senior politician to stand down rather than deliver upon the Brexit ‘mandate’ and his appointment may therefore be seen as synonymous with the retroactive refusal of royal assent.
Flash forward to the 2024 General Election and the shift to the right continues with Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour Party claiming that the Conservatives have failed the British public on matters relating to immigration. Lamenting the 50% decrease in deportations since Labour were last in power, tentpole manifesto pledges include the formation of a 1,000 strong immigration task force and the strengthening of the national borders. As a left-wing party standing on a right-wing manifesto, Labour ultimately secured 411 seats in the House of Commons (a majority of 157) but only 34% of the national vote share. Should Kier Starmer prove unable to enforce the party whip during the lifespan of the current parliament, it is evident that the crisis at the heart of British politics can no longer be considered a party-political issue, but is instead of constitutional significance.
The appeal to right wing sentiment in British politics has resulted in unprecedented swings in voter intention between General Elections and inverse relationship between the size of the majority in parliament and the percentage of the vote share secured by the government of the day. With the polarising impact of the Brexit referendum stratifying both the Conservative and Labour parties, leading to both the absence of ideological cohesion within them, as well as clear distinctions between them, Britain is faced with a shift to the right and the dissolution of the two party state in a shocking reversal of 1945. Hopscotching over the Labour Party to appeal to the same right-wing sentiment, the election of Badenoch or Jenrick as leader of the Conservative Party serves only to deepen the constitution crisis in which Britain finds itself.
Words by Elliot Johnston-Coates
Cover Image Credit: Jeff Overs/ BBC
