Is the government facing a death by by-election?
The last week has seen two historic by-election wins for the Labour Party. Sarah Edwards, the new MP for Tamworth, and Alistair Strather, Mid Bedfordshire’s first-ever Labour MP, overturned huge Tory majorities to secure their seats in a set of by-elections that spell out trouble for the government.
These victories come on the heels of by-elections in Selby and Ainsty, and Rutherglen and Hamilton West, which also saw new Labour MPs welcomed to the House of Commons.
Keir Starmer described the victories as “game changers” and the the election campaign coordinator and Shadow Secretary for Science Peter Kyle called the results a “political earthquake”.
Such was the victory that Labour’s leadership is said to be reevaluating its strategies for the upcoming General Election, considering previously unthinkable seats as potential battlegrounds.
Some in the government attribute these wins to voter apathy rather than a major shift in political allegiance, with Education Secretary Gillian Keegan claiming that the Labour wins are a result of Conservative voters staying home instead of a swing to Labour. They argue the government must focus on showing voters that is it worth “getting out of their house and voting Conservatives like they usually do” come the next General Election.
Peter Bone, who represents Wellingborough, is the latest MP to face a sexual misconduct and bullying scandal, and his 6-week suspension is the first step for yet another by-election. For a by-election to be triggered, an MP must be suspended for more than 10 days and at least 10% of constituents must sign a recall petition.
In 2019, Labour came second in Wellingborough, with a 17.86% swing to lose (which indicates the margin needed for the second-placed party to win). This doesn’t make Wellingborough an easy seat to overturn, especially considering Bone’s continuous tenure since 2005 and his consistently increasing vote share in every General Election.
Labour, however, is unlikely to see it as an impossible challenge, given that last week in Mid Bedfordshire, Strathern overturned a 19.06% swing to lose in a constituency that has been held by the Tories since its creation.
Alistair Strathern’s campaign in Mid Bedfordshire focused on connecting with local people and showing them that he was ready and willing to serve them.
During Nadine Dorries’ time as MP, contact rates were as low as 2%, resulting in many people feeling politically disillusioned and unrepresented- as evidenced by voter turnout at 44% on polling day.
Strathern ran a campaign that invited people to air their grievances and he built up a repertoire with as many people as possible.
On the doorstep, the general feeling seemed to be one that was pro-Alistair, despite not being overwhelmingly pro-Labour. In a Tory stronghold like Mid Bedfordshire, a candidate-focused campaign was very successful. Labour ran a campaign that didn’t focus on the Tory attack as, according to campaign organisers, the Tories had already created enough bad press for themselves.
With the frequency of by-elections and an ongoing spotlight on allegations of bullying and misconduct involving Tory MPs, Labour seems to think that no constituency is entirely out of reach, and it seems increasingly likely that so many bad press by-elections will spell out electoral disaster for the government at the next General Election.
