Brazil’s Battle to Regain Democracy

Brazil, once widely regarded as one of the fastest-growing economies in the world, is now undergoing an uphill battle against social and economic regression worsened by the regime of Jair Bolsonaro. 

Opinion polls highly favored former president and political veteran Luis Inácio Lula Da Silva to win by 10-15%. However, he failed to reach the 50% threshold needed to win the first round and therefore secure the presidency. Instead, he ended up with 48.4 % of the vote while Bolsonaro remained in touching distance with 43.3 % ensuring that the election went to the second round in one of the most violent elections in recent times. 

Bolsonaro’s Failed Term

Bolsonaro’s rise to the presidency was characterised by his outspoken contempt towards left-leaning parties such as the influential Workers’ Party. His homophobic rhetoric captured the attention of the evangelical Christians and his eagerness towards cutting down the already depleted Amazon attracted the support of farmers who needed land for cultivation and cattle farming.

Bolsonaro’s portrayal of himself as a political outcast and a man of the people was a breath of fresh air for the Brazilian public which was still reeling from the string of corruption scandals that had rocked the nation and the economy alike. This uncertain environment, combined with the controversial arrest of Lula, guaranteed a comfortable win over socialist candidate Fernando Haddad for the ‘Tropical Trump’.

Bolsonaro has left Brazil in an arguably worst state than before. More than 13,235 square kilometers of rainforest were cleared between August 2020 and July 2021: the highest level since 2006. This led to devastating forest fires with 44,013 of these outbreaks between January 2020 and August 2020. When confronted with this reality, Bolsonaro called the research a “lie” and instead threw insults at world leaders, namely Emmanuel Macron, which subsequently led to his alienation from the world stage.

However, his biggest blunder was his gross mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic which killed over 700,000 people in Brazil. Bolsonaro’s constant undermining of the virus coupled with his failure to impose any sort of restrictions on the general public spelt doom for the country. The 67-year-old routinely spread misinformation about the virus while simultaneously arguing against social distancing and encouraging people to refrain from wearing masks. His blatant disregard for human life came to light when Brazil faced an urgent oxygen crisis; instead of providing any kind of funding his administration supplied drugs that had no proven effect on the virus. This along with his numerous corruption scandals concerning the procurement of vaccines led to his approval rating dropping all the way to 26% and nationwide protests calling for his impeachment. 

Prison to President

Former president Lula Da Silva is certainly a polarizing figure in Brazilian politics. Lula left his presidential post in 2010 with an astounding 90% approval rate and is widely credited for his social programs which benefitted tens of millions of Brazilians. However, he was embroiled in a corruption scandal after the impeachment of his successor, a former ally. He was accused of accepting a beachside apartment from engineering firm OAS as a bribe in return for helping them acquire lucrative contracts with state-owned oil firm Petrobras. Lula maintained his innocence throughout, insisting the accusations were politically motivated. Nevertheless, he spent 580 days behind bars before being released following a supreme court ruling. 

While Bolsonaro advocates privatization, Lula advocates for state-ownership of all of Brazil’s biggest enterprises including Electrobras and Petrobras. He has stated his intentions to encourage banks to have more social objectives to boost the country’s economy. One of the first leaders to escape extreme poverty, Lula has made reducing food inflation and hunger in poverty-stricken areas his main priority. The 57-year-old has openly condemned the deforestation of the Amazon and vowed to strengthen conservative efforts in the rainforest meanwhile protecting Indigenous tribes from illegal mining. 

Despite having the support of the international community, Lula’s bid to return Brazil to its prime will be a lot harder due to the election of several important Bolsonaro-supported governors. The transition to a more conservative Congress will make it harder for Lula to pass legislation in the country. Nonetheless, Lula’s return to the president will guarantee that Brazil remains a democratic state. 

The Aftermath

Political violence has been prevalent throughout the election with violence against candidates, officials, and government workers increasing by 23%. At least 45 people have been killed with most of these violent acts coming from heavily armed, trigger-happy Bolsonaro supporters. The current president has also publicly stated that he will only leave office if he is ‘killed, jailed or victorious’ and has frequently made unproven accusations of voter fraud by the election committee. Lula is the favorite to win the second round, but it does not end there for him. Bolsonaro has an army and plenty of highly radical supporters who would not hesitate to resort to violence to protest the result. 

Many political analysts predict Lula will get more votes from other first-round candidates, giving him the advantage in the second round. Yet, Bolsonaro’s insistence on rejecting the loss will make sure the transfer to democracy is a tumultuous one for a country struggling to stay afloat.

Image Credit: Sky News